On October 16, 2024, in Rome, the findings of the study “Decarbonization of Residential Thermal Consumption” were presented during the conference “The Challenge of Decarbonizing Residential Consumption”, held at the Sala del Refettorio in the Chamber of Deputies and simultaneously streamed online.
The effectiveness of condensing boilers
The study, commissioned by Proxigas, Assogas, Federchimica-Assogasliquidi, Assotermica, and Utilitalia, and conducted by BIP Consulting, concluded that condensing boilers are the most efficient and sustainable technology for reducing emissions related to residential heating in Italy, particularly when combined with the use of biomethane, bio-LPG, and renewable gas.
Condensing boilers emerge as the most cost-effective solution for most Italian homes, which are characterized by a high percentage of buildings constructed before the 1980s and a residential infrastructure that is often not suitable for more advanced technologies such as heat pumps.
The Italian housing context
The study begins by referencing the goals set by the European Union’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), which aims to reduce energy consumption in residential buildings. In Italy, over 70% of the building stock was built before the 1980s, and a significant portion of homes are classified in energy classes F and G. These buildings are often located in colder climatic areas, and many of them lack gardens or outdoor spaces, which would allow for the installation of bulkier or more complex solutions.
Another crucial factor is that 60% of Italian apartments use individual heating systems, further limiting the possibilities of transitioning to technologies like heat pumps, which require outdoor space for installation.
Transition costs and economic barriers
The study estimates that the total cost to bring Italy’s building stock up to the required energy standards could range from 160 to 480 billion euros. These costs pose a significant challenge for many Italian families, as 70% of them have an annual net income of less than 40,000 euros, making the purchase of electric heat pumps—whose installation cost is around 10,000 euros—prohibitively expensive.
Additionally, more than 30% of Italy’s population is over 60 years old, and a large portion of mortgage-free properties belongs to people over 65. This highlights that the inclination and capacity to carry out energy efficiency upgrades may be limited not only by financial factors but also by a lack of interest from older property owners.
Limitations of heat pumps
While heat pumps are a promising solution for improving energy efficiency, the study finds that the installation of such systems in Italy’s housing context faces many challenges. Beyond the high upfront costs and lack of outdoor spaces, adapting indoor heat distribution systems often requires invasive interventions.
According to the study, of the 16.6 million Italian homes in energy classes F and G, only 5.9 million could technically adopt an electric heat pump. However, when income-related factors are also considered, the number of homes that could actually afford this transition drops to around 1.76 million.
A neutral approach to achieving European goals
To meet the decarbonization targets set by the EU, a neutral approach to technology is essential, offering a range of solutions tailored to Italy’s socio-economic and housing context. Heat pumps can be a valid solution in certain cases, but the study emphasizes that they cannot be the only answer.
Alternatives such as condensing boilers, particularly when powered by renewable gases, prove to be a highly effective solution. The study shows that these boilers not only help reduce emissions but are also more cost-effective in terms of installation and operation compared to heat pumps. Moreover, the transition to renewable gases like biomethane and green LPG can further contribute to reducing emissions, ensuring a more sustainable future.
Future outlook
The study “Decarbonization of Residential Thermal Consumption” demonstrates how Italy, with an aging building stock and a predominantly elderly population, needs flexible and multiple solutions to achieve its energy efficiency goals. The key to success will be the complementarity of different technologies, including condensing boilers, hybrid systems, and heat pumps, to ensure the transition to a more environmentally friendly domestic heating system.
You can consult the full study at this link (Italian version only).
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